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Tottenham Hotspur W vs Arsenal W — FA WSL 2018

Tottenham Hotspur W
Tottenham Hotspur W
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Arsenal W
Arsenal W
11/16/2024FA WSLFA WSL · Round 8Tottenham Hotspur Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur W18%
×Draw22%
Arsenal W60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham Hotspur W
0.98
Arsenal W
1.96

Arsenal W creates 100% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 84 away

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.14
Arsenal W
2.49

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur W
1.43
Arsenal W
0.83

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur W+0.00on par
Arsenal W+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur W ↓

Arsenal W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur W or draw
40%
Tottenham Hotspur W or Arsenal W
78%
Draw or Arsenal W
82%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur W wins by 2+
6%
Arsenal W wins by 2+
36%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur W 1+ goals
62%
Tottenham Hotspur W 2+ goals
26%
Tottenham Hotspur W 3+ goals
8%
Arsenal W 1+ goals
86%
Arsenal W 2+ goals
58%
Arsenal W 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur W (draw refunded)
23%
Arsenal W (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur W at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.43 · 72 matches

Arsenal W away — creates 2.49, concedes 0.83 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur W attack 1.14 + Arsenal W defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.98

Arsenal W attack 2.49 + Tottenham Hotspur W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Tottenham Hotspur W scores more
18%
level
22%
Arsenal W scores more
60%

Arsenal W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Arsenal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA WSL: Tottenham Hotspur W 0–3 Arsenal W

Arsenal W beat Tottenham Hotspur W 3-0 in FA WSL on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in London.