Tottenham Hotspur U21 4–0 Birmingham City U21

Tottenham Hotspur U21

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Birmingham City U21

L. Furnell-Gill 90'

R. Kyerematen 82', 59'

M. Craig 43'

2/8/2026

League #702 · Round 14Lamex Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur U2165%

×Draw18%

Birmingham City U2117%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tottenham Hotspur U21Expected goals in this matchBirmingham City U21

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.46

1.19

Tottenham Hotspur U21

2.46

Birmingham City U21

1.19

Tottenham Hotspur U21 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

1.67

creates per match

1.38

1.00

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur U21

1.67

Birmingham City U21

1.38

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur U21

1.00

Birmingham City U21

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur U21+0.00on par

Birmingham City U21+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur U21 ↓

Birmingham City U21 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur U21 or draw

83%

Tottenham Hotspur U21 or Birmingham City U21

82%

Draw or Birmingham City U21

35%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur U21 wins by 2+

43%

Birmingham City U21 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur U21 1+ goals

91%

Tottenham Hotspur U21 2+ goals

70%

Tottenham Hotspur U21 3+ goals

44%

Birmingham City U21 1+ goals

70%

Birmingham City U21 2+ goals

33%

Birmingham City U21 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur U21 (draw refunded)

79%

Birmingham City U21 (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur U21 at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Birmingham City U21 away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.25 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur U21 attack 1.67 + Birmingham City U21 defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.46

Birmingham City U21 attack 1.38 + Tottenham Hotspur U21 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Tottenham Hotspur U21 scores more

65%

level

18%

Birmingham City U21 scores more

17%

Tottenham Hotspur U21 at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur U21 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Y. Ahmed

37'

J. Quirk

43'

M. Craig↳ R. Kyerematen

58'

L. Black← E. Sowunmi

59'

R. Kyerematen↳ J. Rowswell

66'

E. Upson← C. Logan

71'

G. Wynne← B. Burrell

71'

N. Degtiarev← C. Eubank

77'

E. Lehane← J. Wilson

77'

H. Pearsall← J. Quirk

78'

L. Furnell-Gill← J. Rowswell

82'

R. Kyerematen↳ E. Lehane

90+5'

C. Maddox

90'

L. Furnell-Gill↳ R. Kyerematen

Tottenham

Birmingham

1

O'Sulliva

2

Sanders

4

Briscoe

5

▼

Burrell

3

▼

Quirk

6

Rea

8

▼

7

18

9

17

1

2

A

▼

Rowswell

5

Arganese-

4

King

3

▼

Logan

8

Cassanova

6

⚽

Craig

7

▼

Sowunmi

10

Russell-D

11

⚽2A

Kyeremate

9

▼

Wilson

Manager: Wayne Burnett

58'▲L. Black←▼E. Sowunmi

66'▲E. Upson←▼C. Logan

77'▲E. Lehane←▼J. Wilson

78'▲L. Furnell-Gill←▼J. Rowswell

Tottenham Hotspur U21 substitutes

13Archer12Black14Lehane15Furnell-Gill16Upson

Manager: Danny Barham

71'▲G. Wynne←▼B. Burrell

71'▲N. Degtiarev←▼C. Eubank

77'▲H. Pearsall←▼J. Quirk

Birmingham City U21 substitutes

13Birmingham15Boakye19Wynne14Degtiarev20Pearsall