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Tottenham Hotspur U19 vs Crvena Zvezda U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Tottenham Hotspur U19
Tottenham Hotspur U19
FT
9 – 2
HT: 3 – 1
Crvena Zvezda U19
Crvena Zvezda U19
10/22/2019UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3Hotspur Way Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Tottenham Hotspur U1964%
×Draw17%
Crvena Zvezda U1920%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Tottenham Hotspur U19
2.97
Crvena Zvezda U19
1.65

Tottenham Hotspur U19 creates 80% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Tottenham Hotspur U19
3.17
Crvena Zvezda U19
1.38

allows per match

Tottenham Hotspur U19
1.92
Crvena Zvezda U19
2.77

finishing

Tottenham Hotspur U19+0.00on par
Crvena Zvezda U19+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Tottenham Hotspur U19 ↓

Crvena Zvezda U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
67%33%4.5
47%53%

Double chance

Tottenham Hotspur U19 or draw
80%
Tottenham Hotspur U19 or Crvena Zvezda U19
83%
Draw or Crvena Zvezda U19
36%

Winning margin

Tottenham Hotspur U19 wins by 2+
44%
Crvena Zvezda U19 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Tottenham Hotspur U19 1+ goals
95%
Tottenham Hotspur U19 2+ goals
79%
Tottenham Hotspur U19 3+ goals
56%
Crvena Zvezda U19 1+ goals
81%
Crvena Zvezda U19 2+ goals
49%
Crvena Zvezda U19 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Tottenham Hotspur U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Crvena Zvezda U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Tottenham Hotspur U19 at home — creates 3.17, concedes 1.92 · 12 matches

Crvena Zvezda U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Tottenham Hotspur U19 attack 3.17 + Crvena Zvezda U19 defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.97

Crvena Zvezda U19 attack 1.38 + Tottenham Hotspur U19 defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Tottenham Hotspur U19 scores more
64%
level
17%
Crvena Zvezda U19 scores more
20%

Tottenham Hotspur U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Tottenham Hotspur U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tottenham Hotspur U19 9 – 2 Crvena Zvezda U19

Tottenham Hotspur U19 beat Crvena Zvezda U19 9-2 in UEFA Youth League on October 22, 2019.

The match was played at Hotspur Way Training Centre in London.