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Toten vs Molde II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Toten
Toten
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Molde II
Molde II
8/22/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 17Østre Toten kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Toten38%
×Draw20%
Molde II42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toten
2.03
Molde II
2.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

creates per match

Toten
1.31
Molde II
1.98

allows per match

Toten
2.31
Molde II
2.74

finishing

Toten+0.00on par
Molde II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toten ↓

Molde II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Toten or draw
58%
Toten or Molde II
80%
Draw or Molde II
62%

Winning margin

Toten wins by 2+
20%
Molde II wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Toten 1+ goals
87%
Toten 2+ goals
60%
Toten 3+ goals
33%
Molde II 1+ goals
88%
Molde II 2+ goals
63%
Molde II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Toten (draw refunded)
47%
Molde II (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toten at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Molde II away — creates 1.98, concedes 2.74 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toten attack 1.31 + Molde II defence 2.74 → ÷2 → 2.03

Molde II attack 1.98 + Toten defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Toten scores more
38%
level
20%
Molde II scores more
42%

Molde II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Molde II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Toten 4–1 Molde II

Toten beat Molde II 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on August 22, 2022.

The match was played at Østre Toten kunstgressbane in Lena.