Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Toten vs Lørenskog — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Toten
Toten
FT
0 – 4
Lørenskog
Lørenskog
10/30/20213. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 13Østre Toten kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Toten24%
×Draw19%
Lørenskog57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toten
1.68
Lørenskog
2.60

Lørenskog creates 55% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

Toten
1.86
Lørenskog
1.50

allows per match

Toten
3.71
Lørenskog
1.50

finishing

Toten+0.00on par
Lørenskog+0.00on par

Total goals

80%Over
  • Over80
  • Under20

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toten ↓

Lørenskog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–25%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
80%20%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Toten or draw
43%
Toten or Lørenskog
81%
Draw or Lørenskog
76%

Winning margin

Toten wins by 2+
11%
Lørenskog wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Toten 1+ goals
81%
Toten 2+ goals
50%
Toten 3+ goals
24%
Lørenskog 1+ goals
92%
Lørenskog 2+ goals
73%
Lørenskog 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Toten (draw refunded)
30%
Lørenskog (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toten at home — creates 1.86, concedes 3.71 · 7 matches

Lørenskog away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toten attack 1.86 + Lørenskog defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.68

Lørenskog attack 1.50 + Toten defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Toten scores more
24%
level
19%
Lørenskog scores more
57%

Lørenskog at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Lørenskog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Toten vs Lørenskog

Lørenskog beat Toten 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 1 on October 30, 2021.

The match was played at Østre Toten kunstgressbane in Lena.