Toten 1–2 Hønefoss: Result & Stats

Toten

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Hønefoss

5/14/2022

3. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 6Østre Toten kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Toten22%

×Draw19%

Hønefoss59%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TotenExpected goals in this matchHønefoss

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

2.38

Toten

1.41

Hønefoss

2.38

Hønefoss creates 69% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 32 away

1.31

creates per match

2.44

2.31

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Toten

1.31

Hønefoss

2.44

allows per match

Toten

2.31

Hønefoss

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Toten+0.00on par

Hønefoss+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toten ↓

Hønefoss →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–26%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Toten or draw

41%

Toten or Hønefoss

81%

Draw or Hønefoss

78%

Winning margin

Toten wins by 2+

9%

Hønefoss wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Toten 1+ goals

76%

Toten 2+ goals

41%

Toten 3+ goals

17%

Hønefoss 1+ goals

91%

Hønefoss 2+ goals

68%

Hønefoss 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Toten (draw refunded)

27%

Hønefoss (draw refunded)

73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toten at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Hønefoss away — creates 2.44, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toten attack 1.31 + Hønefoss defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.41

Hønefoss attack 2.44 + Toten defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Toten scores more

22%

level

19%

Hønefoss scores more

59%

Hønefoss at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Hønefoss will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff