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Toten vs Hødd II — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Toten
Toten
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Hødd II
Hødd II
9/18/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 21Østre Toten kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Toten41%
×Draw21%
Hødd II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toten
2.09
Hødd II
2.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Toten
1.31
Hødd II
1.73

allows per match

Toten
2.31
Hødd II
2.88

finishing

Toten+0.00on par
Hødd II+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toten ↓

Hødd II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Toten or draw
62%
Toten or Hødd II
79%
Draw or Hødd II
59%

Winning margin

Toten wins by 2+
23%
Hødd II wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Toten 1+ goals
88%
Toten 2+ goals
62%
Toten 3+ goals
34%
Hødd II 1+ goals
87%
Hødd II 2+ goals
60%
Hødd II 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Toten (draw refunded)
52%
Hødd II (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toten at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Hødd II away — creates 1.73, concedes 2.88 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toten attack 1.31 + Hødd II defence 2.88 → ÷2 → 2.09

Hødd II attack 1.73 + Toten defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Toten scores more
41%
level
21%
Hødd II scores more
38%

Toten at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Toten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toten 1 – 4 Hødd II

Hødd II beat Toten 4-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on September 18, 2022.

The match was played at Østre Toten kunstgressbane in Lena.