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Toten vs Grorud II — 3. Division - Girone 1 2020

Toten
Toten
CANC
14:00
Grorud II
Grorud II
10/17/20203. Division - Girone 13. Division - Girone 1 · Girone 1 - 11Østre Toten kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Toten30%
×Draw18%
Grorud II51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toten
2.16
Grorud II
2.79

Grorud II creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 33 away

creates per match

Toten
1.86
Grorud II
1.88

allows per match

Toten
3.71
Grorud II
2.45

finishing

Toten+0.00on par
Grorud II+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toten ↓

Grorud II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–26%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–23%
4–32%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 82% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Toten or draw
49%
Toten or Grorud II
82%
Draw or Grorud II
70%

Winning margin

Toten wins by 2+
16%
Grorud II wins by 2+
33%

Team goals

Toten 1+ goals
88%
Toten 2+ goals
63%
Toten 3+ goals
36%
Grorud II 1+ goals
94%
Grorud II 2+ goals
76%
Grorud II 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Toten (draw refunded)
37%
Grorud II (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
78%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toten at home — creates 1.86, concedes 3.71 · 7 matches

Grorud II away — creates 1.88, concedes 2.45 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toten attack 1.86 + Grorud II defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.16

Grorud II attack 1.88 + Toten defence 3.71 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Toten scores more
30%
level
18%
Grorud II scores more
51%

Grorud II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Grorud II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Toten vs Grorud II — Match Preview

Toten face Grorud II on October 17, 2020 in this 3. Division - Girone 1 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Toten host Grorud II at Østre Toten kunstgressbane.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.