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Toten vs Elverum — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Toten
Toten
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Elverum
Elverum
5/28/20223. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Girone 2 - 8Østre Toten kunstgressbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Toten25%
×Draw20%
Elverum55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Toten
1.56
Elverum
2.38

Elverum creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

creates per match

Toten
1.31
Elverum
2.46

allows per match

Toten
2.31
Elverum
1.81

finishing

Toten+0.00on par
Elverum+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Toten ↓

Elverum →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–24%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Toten or draw
45%
Toten or Elverum
80%
Draw or Elverum
75%

Winning margin

Toten wins by 2+
11%
Elverum wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Toten 1+ goals
79%
Toten 2+ goals
46%
Toten 3+ goals
21%
Elverum 1+ goals
91%
Elverum 2+ goals
68%
Elverum 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Toten (draw refunded)
31%
Elverum (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Toten at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.31 · 13 matches

Elverum away — creates 2.46, concedes 1.81 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Toten attack 1.31 + Elverum defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Elverum attack 2.46 + Toten defence 2.31 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Toten scores more
25%
level
20%
Elverum scores more
55%

Elverum at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Elverum will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 2: Toten 1–3 Elverum

Elverum beat Toten 3-1 in 3. Division - Girone 2 on May 28, 2022.

The match was played at Østre Toten kunstgressbane in Lena.