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ToTe vs Valtti — Suomen Cup 2018

ToTe
ToTe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Valtti
Valttiadvanced
4/16/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 128

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

ToTe14%
×Draw15%
Valtti70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ToTe
1.30
Valtti
2.96

Valtti creates 128% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

ToTe
1.60
Valtti
3.71

allows per match

ToTe
2.20
Valtti
1.00

finishing

ToTe+0.00on par
Valtti+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ToTe ↓

Valtti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–26%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

ToTe or draw
30%
ToTe or Valtti
85%
Draw or Valtti
86%

Winning margin

ToTe wins by 2+
6%
Valtti wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

ToTe 1+ goals
73%
ToTe 2+ goals
37%
ToTe 3+ goals
14%
Valtti 1+ goals
95%
Valtti 2+ goals
79%
Valtti 3+ goals
55%

Draw no bet

ToTe (draw refunded)
17%
Valtti (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ToTe at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Valtti away — creates 3.71, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ToTe attack 1.60 + Valtti defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Valtti attack 3.71 + ToTe defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

ToTe scores more
14%
level
15%
Valtti scores more
70%

Valtti at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Valtti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ToTe 0 – 1 Valtti

Valtti beat ToTe 1-0 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2026.