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ToTe vs Kontu — Suomen Cup 2018

ToTe
ToTe
FT
1 – 0
Kontu
Kontu
3/12/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 1st RoundTöölö PK 1 Tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ToTe6%
×Draw8%
Kontu85%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ToTe
1.43
Kontu
4.85

Kontu creates 239% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

ToTe
1.60
Kontu
7.50

allows per match

ToTe
2.20
Kontu
1.25

finishing

ToTe+0.00on par
Kontu+0.00on par

Total goals

94%Over
  • Over94
  • Under6

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

75%Yes
  • Yes75
  • No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ToTe ↓

Kontu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–23%
0–35%
0–46%
1
1–00%
1–12%
1–24%
1–37%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–23%
2–35%
2–46%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–4 (8%) · grid covers 59% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
94%6%3.5
84%16%4.5
68%32%

Double chance

ToTe or draw
15%
ToTe or Kontu
92%
Draw or Kontu
94%

Winning margin

ToTe wins by 2+
2%
Kontu wins by 2+
72%

Team goals

ToTe 1+ goals
76%
ToTe 2+ goals
42%
ToTe 3+ goals
17%
Kontu 1+ goals
99%
Kontu 2+ goals
94%
Kontu 3+ goals
82%

Draw no bet

ToTe (draw refunded)
7%
Kontu (draw refunded)
93%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ToTe at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Kontu away — creates 7.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ToTe attack 1.60 + Kontu defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kontu attack 7.50 + ToTe defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 4.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 85%?"

ToTe scores more
6%
level
8%
Kontu scores more
85%

Kontu at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Kontu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

ToTe 1 – 0 Kontu

ToTe beat Kontu 1-0 in Suomen Cup on March 12, 2023.

The match was played at Töölö PK 1 Tekonurmi in Helsinki.