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ToTe / Keparoi vs KoiPS — Suomen Cup 2018

ToTe / Keparoi
ToTe / Keparoi
FT
0 – 1
KoiPS
KoiPS
3/24/2023Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundTöölö Sahara tekonurmi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

ToTe / Keparoi11%
×Draw14%
KoiPS75%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

ToTe / Keparoi
1.13
KoiPS
3.04

KoiPS creates 169% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

ToTe / Keparoi
0.25
KoiPS
2.33

allows per match

ToTe / Keparoi
3.75
KoiPS
2.00

finishing

ToTe / Keparoi+0.00on par
KoiPS+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ToTe / Keparoi ↓

KoiPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (8%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

ToTe / Keparoi or draw
25%
ToTe / Keparoi or KoiPS
86%
Draw or KoiPS
89%

Winning margin

ToTe / Keparoi wins by 2+
4%
KoiPS wins by 2+
55%

Team goals

ToTe / Keparoi 1+ goals
68%
ToTe / Keparoi 2+ goals
31%
ToTe / Keparoi 3+ goals
11%
KoiPS 1+ goals
95%
KoiPS 2+ goals
80%
KoiPS 3+ goals
57%

Draw no bet

ToTe / Keparoi (draw refunded)
13%
KoiPS (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ToTe / Keparoi at home — creates 0.25, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

KoiPS away — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ToTe / Keparoi attack 0.25 + KoiPS defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

KoiPS attack 2.33 + ToTe / Keparoi defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 3.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

ToTe / Keparoi scores more
11%
level
14%
KoiPS scores more
75%

KoiPS at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "KoiPS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: ToTe / Keparoi 0–1 KoiPS

KoiPS beat ToTe / Keparoi 1-0 in Suomen Cup on March 24, 2023.

The match was played at Töölö Sahara tekonurmi in Helsinki.