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TOŠK Tešanj vs Vitez — 1st League - FBiH 2019

TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Vitez
Vitez
A. Mujkic 38'
4/12/20261st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 18Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj58%
×Draw24%
Vitez18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOŠK Tešanj
1.71
Vitez
0.83

TOŠK Tešanj creates 106% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj
1.61
Vitez
0.87

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj
0.79
Vitez
1.80

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par
Vitez+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 53Over: 4753%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 54Yes: 4654%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Vitez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw
82%
TOŠK Tešanj or Vitez
76%
Draw or Vitez
42%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
33%
Vitez wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
82%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
51%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
24%
Vitez 1+ goals
56%
Vitez 2+ goals
20%
Vitez 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
76%
Vitez (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.79 · 95 matches

Vitez away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.61 + Vitez defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Vitez attack 0.87 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more
58%
level
24%
Vitez scores more
18%

TOŠK Tešanj at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
A. Mujkic
TOŠK
Vitez
A. Mrguda
Manager: A. Mrguda
I. Bonić
Manager: I. Bonić

1st League - FBiH: TOŠK Tešanj 1–0 Vitez

TOŠK Tešanj beat Vitez 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 12, 2026.

Goals: A. Mujkic (38').

The match was played at Stadion Luke Tešanj in Tešanj.