Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

TOŠK Tešanj vs Sloboda Tuzla — 1st League - FBiH 2019

TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sloboda Tuzla
Sloboda Tuzla
11/16/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 13Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj44%
×Draw29%
Sloboda Tuzla27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOŠK Tešanj
1.27
Sloboda Tuzla
0.92

TOŠK Tešanj creates 38% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 28 away

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj
1.59
Sloboda Tuzla
1.07

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj
0.77
Sloboda Tuzla
0.96

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par
Sloboda Tuzla+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Sloboda Tuzla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw
73%
TOŠK Tešanj or Sloboda Tuzla
71%
Draw or Sloboda Tuzla
56%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
20%
Sloboda Tuzla wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
72%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
36%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
14%
Sloboda Tuzla 1+ goals
60%
Sloboda Tuzla 2+ goals
23%
Sloboda Tuzla 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
62%
Sloboda Tuzla (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Sloboda Tuzla away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.59 + Sloboda Tuzla defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.27

Sloboda Tuzla attack 1.07 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more
44%
level
29%
Sloboda Tuzla scores more
27%

TOŠK Tešanj at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TOŠK Tešanj vs Sloboda Tuzla

TOŠK Tešanj beat Sloboda Tuzla 1-0 in 1st League - FBiH on November 16, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Luke Tešanj in Tešanj.