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TOŠK Tešanj vs Rudar Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Rudar Kakanj
Rudar Kakanj
8/21/20221st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 2Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj55%
×Draw25%
Rudar Kakanj20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOŠK Tešanj
1.58
Rudar Kakanj
0.83

TOŠK Tešanj creates 90% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 68 away

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj
1.59
Rudar Kakanj
0.90

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj
0.77
Rudar Kakanj
1.56

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par
Rudar Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Rudar Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw
80%
TOŠK Tešanj or Rudar Kakanj
75%
Draw or Rudar Kakanj
45%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
29%
Rudar Kakanj wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
79%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
47%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
21%
Rudar Kakanj 1+ goals
56%
Rudar Kakanj 2+ goals
20%
Rudar Kakanj 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
74%
Rudar Kakanj (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Rudar Kakanj away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.56 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.59 + Rudar Kakanj defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.58

Rudar Kakanj attack 0.90 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more
55%
level
25%
Rudar Kakanj scores more
20%

TOŠK Tešanj at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: TOŠK Tešanj 2–0 Rudar Kakanj

TOŠK Tešanj beat Rudar Kakanj 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on August 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Luke Tešanj in Tešanj.