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TOŠK Tešanj vs Radnik Hadžići — 1st League - FBiH 2019

TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Radnik Hadžići
Radnik Hadžići
3/9/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 16Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj54%
×Draw25%
Radnik Hadžići21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOŠK Tešanj
1.60
Radnik Hadžići
0.88

TOŠK Tešanj creates 82% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 94 away

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj
1.61
Radnik Hadžići
0.97

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj
0.79
Radnik Hadžići
1.59

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par
Radnik Hadžići+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 55Over: 4555%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 53Yes: 4753%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Radnik Hadžići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw
79%
TOŠK Tešanj or Radnik Hadžići
75%
Draw or Radnik Hadžići
46%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
29%
Radnik Hadžići wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
80%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
47%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
22%
Radnik Hadžići 1+ goals
59%
Radnik Hadžići 2+ goals
22%
Radnik Hadžići 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
72%
Radnik Hadžići (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.79 · 95 matches

Radnik Hadžići away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.59 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.61 + Radnik Hadžići defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Radnik Hadžići attack 0.97 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more
54%
level
25%
Radnik Hadžići scores more
21%

TOŠK Tešanj at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TOŠK Tešanj vs Radnik Hadžići

TOŠK Tešanj and Radnik Hadžići drew 2-2 in 1st League - FBiH on March 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Luke Tešanj in Tešanj.