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TOŠK Tešanj vs Mladost Doboj Kakanj — 1st League - FBiH 2019

TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
9/17/20231st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj64%
×Draw21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOŠK Tešanj
1.90
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.75

TOŠK Tešanj creates 153% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 45 away

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj
1.59
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
0.73

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj
0.77
Mladost Doboj Kakanj
2.20

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par
Mladost Doboj Kakanj+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Mladost Doboj Kakanj →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw
86%
TOŠK Tešanj or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
79%
Draw or Mladost Doboj Kakanj
36%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
39%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
85%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
56%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
29%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 1+ goals
53%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 2+ goals
17%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
82%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Mladost Doboj Kakanj away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.20 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.59 + Mladost Doboj Kakanj defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Mladost Doboj Kakanj attack 0.73 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more
64%
level
21%
Mladost Doboj Kakanj scores more
14%

TOŠK Tešanj at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: TOŠK Tešanj 0–2 Mladost Doboj Kakanj

Mladost Doboj Kakanj beat TOŠK Tešanj 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Luke Tešanj in Tešanj.