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TOŠK Tešanj vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce — 1st League - FBiH 2019

TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
FT
2 – 1
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
9/15/20191st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 6Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj66%
×Draw21%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOŠK Tešanj
1.98
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.76

TOŠK Tešanj creates 161% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 8 away

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj
1.59
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
0.75

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj
0.77
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
2.38

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw
86%
TOŠK Tešanj or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
79%
Draw or Metalleghe-BSI Jajce
34%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
41%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
86%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
59%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
31%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 1+ goals
53%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2+ goals
18%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
83%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce away — creates 0.75, concedes 2.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.59 + Metalleghe-BSI Jajce defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.98

Metalleghe-BSI Jajce attack 0.75 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more
66%
level
21%
Metalleghe-BSI Jajce scores more
14%

TOŠK Tešanj at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: TOŠK Tešanj vs Metalleghe-BSI Jajce

TOŠK Tešanj beat Metalleghe-BSI Jajce 2-1 in 1st League - FBiH on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Luke Tešanj in Tešanj.