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TOŠK Tešanj vs Goražde — 1st League - FBiH 2019

TOŠK Tešanj
TOŠK Tešanj
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Goražde
Goražde
4/21/20241st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 22Stadion Luke Tešanj

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

TOŠK Tešanj52%
×Draw27%
Goražde21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TOŠK Tešanj
1.47
Goražde
0.84

TOŠK Tešanj creates 75% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 82 away

creates per match

TOŠK Tešanj
1.59
Goražde
0.91

allows per match

TOŠK Tešanj
0.77
Goražde
1.34

finishing

TOŠK Tešanj+0.00on par
Goražde+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TOŠK Tešanj ↓

Goražde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

TOŠK Tešanj or draw
79%
TOŠK Tešanj or Goražde
73%
Draw or Goražde
48%

Winning margin

TOŠK Tešanj wins by 2+
26%
Goražde wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

TOŠK Tešanj 1+ goals
77%
TOŠK Tešanj 2+ goals
43%
TOŠK Tešanj 3+ goals
18%
Goražde 1+ goals
57%
Goražde 2+ goals
21%
Goražde 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

TOŠK Tešanj (draw refunded)
71%
Goražde (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TOŠK Tešanj at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.77 · 95 matches

Goražde away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.34 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TOŠK Tešanj attack 1.59 + Goražde defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.47

Goražde attack 0.91 + TOŠK Tešanj defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

TOŠK Tešanj scores more
52%
level
27%
Goražde scores more
21%

TOŠK Tešanj at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "TOŠK Tešanj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - FBiH: TOŠK Tešanj 0–2 Goražde

Goražde beat TOŠK Tešanj 2-0 in 1st League - FBiH on April 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Luke Tešanj in Tešanj.