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Torviscosa vs Virtus Bolzano — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Torviscosa
Torviscosa
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Bolzano
Virtus Bolzano
4/30/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 33Stadio Beppino Tonello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torviscosa30%
×Draw29%
Virtus Bolzano42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torviscosa
1.00
Virtus Bolzano
1.24

Virtus Bolzano creates 24% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Torviscosa
0.65
Virtus Bolzano
0.88

allows per match

Torviscosa
1.59
Virtus Bolzano
1.35

finishing

Torviscosa+0.00on par
Virtus Bolzano+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torviscosa ↓

Virtus Bolzano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torviscosa or draw
58%
Torviscosa or Virtus Bolzano
71%
Draw or Virtus Bolzano
70%

Winning margin

Torviscosa wins by 2+
11%
Virtus Bolzano wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Torviscosa 1+ goals
63%
Torviscosa 2+ goals
26%
Torviscosa 3+ goals
8%
Virtus Bolzano 1+ goals
71%
Virtus Bolzano 2+ goals
35%
Virtus Bolzano 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Torviscosa (draw refunded)
42%
Virtus Bolzano (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torviscosa at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Virtus Bolzano away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torviscosa attack 0.65 + Virtus Bolzano defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.00

Virtus Bolzano attack 0.88 + Torviscosa defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torviscosa scores more
30%
level
29%
Virtus Bolzano scores more
42%

Virtus Bolzano at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Virtus Bolzano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torviscosa vs Virtus Bolzano

Virtus Bolzano beat Torviscosa 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on April 30, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Beppino Tonello in Torviscosa.