Torviscosa 0–1 Montebelluna: Result & Stats

Torviscosa

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Montebelluna

N. Fasan 90+2'

11/6/2022

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 10Stadio Beppino Tonello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torviscosa29%

×Draw27%

Montebelluna44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorviscosaExpected goals in this matchMontebelluna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

1.39

Torviscosa

1.06

Montebelluna

1.39

Montebelluna creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 64 away

0.65

creates per match

1.19

1.59

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Torviscosa

0.65

Montebelluna

1.19

allows per match

Torviscosa

1.59

Montebelluna

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torviscosa+0.00on par

Montebelluna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torviscosa ↓

Montebelluna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Torviscosa or draw

56%

Torviscosa or Montebelluna

73%

Draw or Montebelluna

71%

Winning margin

Torviscosa wins by 2+

11%

Montebelluna wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Torviscosa 1+ goals

65%

Torviscosa 2+ goals

29%

Torviscosa 3+ goals

9%

Montebelluna 1+ goals

75%

Montebelluna 2+ goals

40%

Montebelluna 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Torviscosa (draw refunded)

39%

Montebelluna (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torviscosa at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Montebelluna away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.47 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torviscosa attack 0.65 + Montebelluna defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.06

Montebelluna attack 1.19 + Torviscosa defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torviscosa scores more

29%

level

27%

Montebelluna scores more

44%

Montebelluna at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Montebelluna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'

N. Fasan

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff