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Torviscosa vs Legnago Salus — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Torviscosa
Torviscosa
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 4
Legnago Salus
Legnago Salus
2/19/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 24Stadio Beppino Tonello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torviscosa20%
×Draw24%
Legnago Salus56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torviscosa
0.91
Legnago Salus
1.69

Legnago Salus creates 86% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 48 away

creates per match

Torviscosa
0.65
Legnago Salus
1.79

allows per match

Torviscosa
1.59
Legnago Salus
1.17

finishing

Torviscosa+0.00on par
Legnago Salus+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torviscosa ↓

Legnago Salus →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–113%
0–211%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Torviscosa or draw
44%
Torviscosa or Legnago Salus
76%
Draw or Legnago Salus
80%

Winning margin

Torviscosa wins by 2+
7%
Legnago Salus wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Torviscosa 1+ goals
60%
Torviscosa 2+ goals
23%
Torviscosa 3+ goals
6%
Legnago Salus 1+ goals
82%
Legnago Salus 2+ goals
50%
Legnago Salus 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Torviscosa (draw refunded)
27%
Legnago Salus (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torviscosa at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Legnago Salus away — creates 1.79, concedes 1.17 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torviscosa attack 0.65 + Legnago Salus defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.91

Legnago Salus attack 1.79 + Torviscosa defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Torviscosa scores more
20%
level
24%
Legnago Salus scores more
56%

Legnago Salus at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Legnago Salus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torviscosa vs Legnago Salus

Legnago Salus beat Torviscosa 5-0 in Serie D - Girone C on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Beppino Tonello in Torviscosa.