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Torviscosa vs Dolomiti Bellunesi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Torviscosa
Torviscosa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Dolomiti Bellunesi
Dolomiti Bellunesi
T. Bertoni 42'
S. Svidercoschi 34', 8'
1/22/2023Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 20Stadio Beppino Tonello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torviscosa23%
×Draw26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torviscosa
0.94
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.53

Dolomiti Bellunesi creates 63% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 70 away

creates per match

Torviscosa
0.65
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.47

allows per match

Torviscosa
1.59
Dolomiti Bellunesi
1.23

finishing

Torviscosa+0.00on par
Dolomiti Bellunesi+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torviscosa ↓

Dolomiti Bellunesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–113%
0–210%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torviscosa or draw
49%
Torviscosa or Dolomiti Bellunesi
74%
Draw or Dolomiti Bellunesi
77%

Winning margin

Torviscosa wins by 2+
8%
Dolomiti Bellunesi wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Torviscosa 1+ goals
61%
Torviscosa 2+ goals
24%
Torviscosa 3+ goals
7%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 1+ goals
78%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 2+ goals
45%
Dolomiti Bellunesi 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Torviscosa (draw refunded)
31%
Dolomiti Bellunesi (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torviscosa at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Dolomiti Bellunesi away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.23 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torviscosa attack 0.65 + Dolomiti Bellunesi defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 0.94

Dolomiti Bellunesi attack 1.47 + Torviscosa defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torviscosa scores more
23%
level
26%
Dolomiti Bellunesi scores more
51%

Dolomiti Bellunesi at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Dolomiti Bellunesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
S. Svidercoschi
34'
S. Svidercoschi
42'
T. Bertoni

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torviscosa vs Dolomiti Bellunesi

Dolomiti Bellunesi beat Torviscosa 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 22, 2023.

Goals: S. Svidercoschi (8', 34'), T. Bertoni (42').

The match was played at Stadio Beppino Tonello in Torviscosa.