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Torviscosa vs Adriese — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Torviscosa
Torviscosa
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Adriese
Adriese
11/20/2022Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 12Stadio Beppino Tonello

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torviscosa26%
×Draw26%
Adriese48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torviscosa
1.01
Adriese
1.48

Adriese creates 47% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 101 away

creates per match

Torviscosa
0.65
Adriese
1.36

allows per match

Torviscosa
1.59
Adriese
1.36

finishing

Torviscosa+0.00on par
Adriese+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torviscosa ↓

Adriese →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–112%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Torviscosa or draw
52%
Torviscosa or Adriese
74%
Draw or Adriese
74%

Winning margin

Torviscosa wins by 2+
9%
Adriese wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Torviscosa 1+ goals
64%
Torviscosa 2+ goals
27%
Torviscosa 3+ goals
8%
Adriese 1+ goals
77%
Adriese 2+ goals
43%
Adriese 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Torviscosa (draw refunded)
35%
Adriese (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torviscosa at home — creates 0.65, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Adriese away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.36 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torviscosa attack 0.65 + Adriese defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.01

Adriese attack 1.36 + Torviscosa defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Torviscosa scores more
26%
level
26%
Adriese scores more
48%

Adriese at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Adriese will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torviscosa vs Adriese

Torviscosa beat Adriese 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on November 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadio Beppino Tonello in Torviscosa.