Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torvastad vs Vidar — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Torvastad
Torvastad
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 3
Vidar
Vidar
6/8/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 9Torvastad Idrettssenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Torvastad25%
×Draw20%
Vidar55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torvastad
1.50
Vidar
2.30

Vidar creates 53% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Torvastad
1.31
Vidar
2.92

allows per match

Torvastad
1.69
Vidar
1.69

finishing

Torvastad+0.00on par
Vidar+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torvastad ↓

Vidar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–26%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Torvastad or draw
45%
Torvastad or Vidar
80%
Draw or Vidar
75%

Winning margin

Torvastad wins by 2+
11%
Vidar wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Torvastad 1+ goals
78%
Torvastad 2+ goals
44%
Torvastad 3+ goals
19%
Vidar 1+ goals
90%
Vidar 2+ goals
67%
Vidar 3+ goals
40%

Draw no bet

Torvastad (draw refunded)
31%
Vidar (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torvastad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Vidar away — creates 2.92, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torvastad attack 1.31 + Vidar defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vidar attack 2.92 + Torvastad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torvastad scores more
25%
level
20%
Vidar scores more
55%

Vidar at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vidar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torvastad vs Vidar

Vidar beat Torvastad 5-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Torvastad Idrettssenter in Torvastad.