Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Torvastad vs Våg — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Torvastad
Torvastad
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Våg
Våg
3/29/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 1Torvastad Idrettssenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Torvastad45%
×Draw20%
Våg35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torvastad
2.34
Våg
2.08

Torvastad creates 13% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Torvastad
1.31
Våg
2.46

allows per match

Torvastad
1.69
Våg
3.38

finishing

Torvastad+0.00on par
Våg+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torvastad ↓

Våg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Torvastad or draw
65%
Torvastad or Våg
80%
Draw or Våg
55%

Winning margin

Torvastad wins by 2+
26%
Våg wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torvastad 1+ goals
90%
Torvastad 2+ goals
67%
Torvastad 3+ goals
41%
Våg 1+ goals
87%
Våg 2+ goals
61%
Våg 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Torvastad (draw refunded)
56%
Våg (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
73%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torvastad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Våg away — creates 2.46, concedes 3.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torvastad attack 1.31 + Våg defence 3.38 → ÷2 → 2.34

Våg attack 2.46 + Torvastad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Torvastad scores more
45%
level
20%
Våg scores more
35%

Torvastad at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Torvastad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division - Girone 5: Torvastad 4–0 Våg

Torvastad beat Våg 4-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Torvastad Idrettssenter in Torvastad.