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Torvastad vs Stord — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Torvastad
Torvastad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Stord
Stord
9/20/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 21Torvastad Idrettssenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Torvastad37%
×Draw21%
Stord42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torvastad
2.00
Stord
2.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Torvastad
1.31
Stord
2.54

allows per match

Torvastad
1.69
Stord
2.69

finishing

Torvastad+0.00on par
Stord+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torvastad ↓

Stord →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
39%61%

Double chance

Torvastad or draw
58%
Torvastad or Stord
79%
Draw or Stord
63%

Winning margin

Torvastad wins by 2+
20%
Stord wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Torvastad 1+ goals
86%
Torvastad 2+ goals
59%
Torvastad 3+ goals
32%
Stord 1+ goals
88%
Stord 2+ goals
62%
Stord 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Torvastad (draw refunded)
47%
Stord (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torvastad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Stord away — creates 2.54, concedes 2.69 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torvastad attack 1.31 + Stord defence 2.69 → ÷2 → 2.00

Stord attack 2.54 + Torvastad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torvastad scores more
37%
level
21%
Stord scores more
42%

Stord at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Stord will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torvastad vs Stord

Stord beat Torvastad 2-1 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Torvastad Idrettssenter in Torvastad.