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Torvastad vs Brodd — 3. Division - Girone 5 2020

Torvastad
Torvastad
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Brodd
Brodd
5/1/20253. Division - Girone 53. Division - Girone 5 · Group 5 - 5Torvastad Idrettssenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Torvastad37%
×Draw21%
Brodd42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torvastad
1.84
Brodd
1.96

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

Torvastad
1.31
Brodd
2.23

allows per match

Torvastad
1.69
Brodd
2.38

finishing

Torvastad+0.00on par
Brodd+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torvastad ↓

Brodd →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Torvastad or draw
58%
Torvastad or Brodd
79%
Draw or Brodd
63%

Winning margin

Torvastad wins by 2+
19%
Brodd wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Torvastad 1+ goals
84%
Torvastad 2+ goals
55%
Torvastad 3+ goals
28%
Brodd 1+ goals
86%
Brodd 2+ goals
58%
Brodd 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Torvastad (draw refunded)
47%
Brodd (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torvastad at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.69 · 13 matches

Brodd away — creates 2.23, concedes 2.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torvastad attack 1.31 + Brodd defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.84

Brodd attack 2.23 + Torvastad defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Torvastad scores more
37%
level
21%
Brodd scores more
42%

Brodd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Brodd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torvastad vs Brodd

Torvastad beat Brodd 1-0 in 3. Division - Girone 5 on May 1, 2025.

The match was played at Torvastad Idrettssenter in Torvastad.