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Torslanda vs Västra Frölunda — Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2019

Torslanda
Torslanda
FT
2 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Västra Frölunda
Västra Frölunda
6/22/2022Division 2 - Västra GötalandDivision 2 - Västra Götaland · Västra Götaland - 14Torslandavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Torslanda43%
×Draw22%
Västra Frölunda34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torslanda
1.86
Västra Frölunda
1.64

Torslanda creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 79 away

creates per match

Torslanda
1.95
Västra Frölunda
1.66

allows per match

Torslanda
1.62
Västra Frölunda
1.77

finishing

Torslanda+0.00on par
Västra Frölunda+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torslanda ↓

Västra Frölunda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Torslanda or draw
66%
Torslanda or Västra Frölunda
78%
Draw or Västra Frölunda
57%

Winning margin

Torslanda wins by 2+
23%
Västra Frölunda wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Torslanda 1+ goals
84%
Torslanda 2+ goals
55%
Torslanda 3+ goals
28%
Västra Frölunda 1+ goals
81%
Västra Frölunda 2+ goals
49%
Västra Frölunda 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Torslanda (draw refunded)
56%
Västra Frölunda (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torslanda at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Västra Frölunda away — creates 1.66, concedes 1.77 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torslanda attack 1.95 + Västra Frölunda defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.86

Västra Frölunda attack 1.66 + Torslanda defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torslanda scores more
43%
level
22%
Västra Frölunda scores more
34%

Torslanda at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torslanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division 2 - Västra Götaland: Torslanda 2–4 Västra Frölunda

Västra Frölunda beat Torslanda 4-2 in Division 2 - Västra Götaland on June 22, 2022.

The match was played at Torslandavallen in Torslanda.