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Torslanda vs Säffle SK — Division 2 - Norra Götaland 2019

Torslanda
Torslanda
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Säffle SK
Säffle SK
10/1/2023Division 2 - Norra GötalandDivision 2 - Norra Götaland · Norra Götaland - 23Torslandavallen 2 Konstgräs

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Torslanda61%
×Draw20%
Säffle SK19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torslanda
2.21
Säffle SK
1.14

Torslanda creates 94% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

creates per match

Torslanda
2.19
Säffle SK
0.81

allows per match

Torslanda
1.46
Säffle SK
2.23

finishing

Torslanda+0.00on par
Säffle SK+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torslanda ↓

Säffle SK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Torslanda or draw
81%
Torslanda or Säffle SK
80%
Draw or Säffle SK
39%

Winning margin

Torslanda wins by 2+
39%
Säffle SK wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Torslanda 1+ goals
89%
Torslanda 2+ goals
65%
Torslanda 3+ goals
38%
Säffle SK 1+ goals
68%
Säffle SK 2+ goals
32%
Säffle SK 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Torslanda (draw refunded)
77%
Säffle SK (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torslanda at home — creates 2.19, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

Säffle SK away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.23 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torslanda attack 2.19 + Säffle SK defence 2.23 → ÷2 → 2.21

Säffle SK attack 0.81 + Torslanda defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Torslanda scores more
61%
level
20%
Säffle SK scores more
19%

Torslanda at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Torslanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torslanda vs Säffle SK

Torslanda beat Säffle SK 5-0 in Division 2 - Norra Götaland on October 1, 2023.

The match was played at Torslandavallen 2 Konstgräs in Torslanda.