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Torslanda vs Onsala — Division 2 - Västra Götaland 2019

Torslanda
Torslanda
FT
3 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Onsala
Onsala
9/3/2022Division 2 - Västra GötalandDivision 2 - Västra Götaland · Västra Götaland - 20Torslandavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Torslanda40%
×Draw22%
Onsala38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torslanda
1.84
Onsala
1.77

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 80 away

creates per match

Torslanda
1.95
Onsala
1.93

allows per match

Torslanda
1.62
Onsala
1.74

finishing

Torslanda+0.00on par
Onsala+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torslanda ↓

Onsala →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Torslanda or draw
62%
Torslanda or Onsala
78%
Draw or Onsala
60%

Winning margin

Torslanda wins by 2+
21%
Onsala wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Torslanda 1+ goals
84%
Torslanda 2+ goals
55%
Torslanda 3+ goals
28%
Onsala 1+ goals
83%
Onsala 2+ goals
53%
Onsala 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Torslanda (draw refunded)
52%
Onsala (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torslanda at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.62 · 37 matches

Onsala away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.74 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torslanda attack 1.95 + Onsala defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.84

Onsala attack 1.93 + Torslanda defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Torslanda scores more
40%
level
22%
Onsala scores more
38%

Torslanda at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Torslanda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torslanda vs Onsala

Torslanda and Onsala drew 3-3 in Division 2 - Västra Götaland on September 3, 2022.

The match was played at Torslandavallen in Torslanda.