Torrijos 1–1 Huracán Balazote: Result & Stats

Torrijos

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Huracán Balazote

2/13/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 24Estadio San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Torrijos48%

×Draw27%

Huracán Balazote25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrijosExpected goals in this matchHuracán Balazote

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.91

Torrijos

1.39

Huracán Balazote

0.91

Torrijos creates 53% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 81 away

1.34

creates per match

0.95

0.86

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Torrijos

1.34

Huracán Balazote

0.95

allows per match

Torrijos

0.86

Huracán Balazote

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrijos+0.00on par

Huracán Balazote+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrijos ↓

Huracán Balazote →

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Torrijos or draw

75%

Torrijos or Huracán Balazote

73%

Draw or Huracán Balazote

52%

Winning margin

Torrijos wins by 2+

23%

Huracán Balazote wins by 2+

Team goals

Torrijos 1+ goals

75%

Torrijos 2+ goals

40%

Torrijos 3+ goals

16%

Huracán Balazote 1+ goals

60%

Huracán Balazote 2+ goals

23%

Huracán Balazote 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrijos (draw refunded)

66%

Huracán Balazote (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrijos at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 77 matches

Huracán Balazote away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.44 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrijos attack 1.34 + Huracán Balazote defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Huracán Balazote attack 0.95 + Torrijos defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Torrijos scores more

48%

level

27%

Huracán Balazote scores more

25%

Torrijos at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Torrijos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff