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Torrijos vs Hogar Alcarreño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Torrijos
Torrijos
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Hogar Alcarreño
Hogar Alcarreño
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 28Estadio San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torrijos74%
×Draw16%
Hogar Alcarreño10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrijos
2.41
Hogar Alcarreño
0.76

Torrijos creates 217% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 17 away

creates per match

Torrijos
1.34
Hogar Alcarreño
0.65

allows per match

Torrijos
0.86
Hogar Alcarreño
3.47

finishing

Torrijos+0.00on par
Hogar Alcarreño+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrijos ↓

Hogar Alcarreño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Torrijos or draw
90%
Torrijos or Hogar Alcarreño
84%
Draw or Hogar Alcarreño
26%

Winning margin

Torrijos wins by 2+
51%
Hogar Alcarreño wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Torrijos 1+ goals
91%
Torrijos 2+ goals
69%
Torrijos 3+ goals
43%
Hogar Alcarreño 1+ goals
53%
Hogar Alcarreño 2+ goals
18%
Hogar Alcarreño 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Torrijos (draw refunded)
88%
Hogar Alcarreño (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrijos at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 77 matches

Hogar Alcarreño away — creates 0.65, concedes 3.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrijos attack 1.34 + Hogar Alcarreño defence 3.47 → ÷2 → 2.41

Hogar Alcarreño attack 0.65 + Torrijos defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Torrijos scores more
74%
level
16%
Hogar Alcarreño scores more
10%

Torrijos at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Torrijos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Torrijos 4–0 Hogar Alcarreño

Torrijos beat Hogar Alcarreño 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco in Torrijos.