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Torrijos vs Calvo Sotelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Torrijos
Torrijos
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
5/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Torrijos43%
×Draw29%
Calvo Sotelo28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torrijos
1.22
Calvo Sotelo
0.94

Torrijos creates 30% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 93 away

creates per match

Torrijos
1.34
Calvo Sotelo
1.01

allows per match

Torrijos
0.86
Calvo Sotelo
1.09

finishing

Torrijos+0.00on par
Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrijos ↓

Calvo Sotelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torrijos or draw
72%
Torrijos or Calvo Sotelo
71%
Draw or Calvo Sotelo
57%

Winning margin

Torrijos wins by 2+
19%
Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torrijos 1+ goals
70%
Torrijos 2+ goals
34%
Torrijos 3+ goals
12%
Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
61%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
24%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torrijos (draw refunded)
60%
Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torrijos at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.86 · 77 matches

Calvo Sotelo away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.09 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torrijos attack 1.34 + Calvo Sotelo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.01 + Torrijos defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torrijos scores more
43%
level
29%
Calvo Sotelo scores more
28%

Torrijos at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torrijos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Torrijos 1–0 Calvo Sotelo

Torrijos beat Calvo Sotelo 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on May 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio San Francisco in Torrijos.