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Torres vs Vis Artena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Torres
Torres
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vis Artena
Vis Artena
12/29/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 12Stadio Vanni Sanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Torres50%
×Draw26%
Vis Artena24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torres
1.50
Vis Artena
0.95

Torres creates 58% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

creates per match

Torres
1.81
Vis Artena
1.06

allows per match

Torres
0.84
Vis Artena
1.19

finishing

Torres+0.00on par
Vis Artena+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torres ↓

Vis Artena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Torres or draw
76%
Torres or Vis Artena
74%
Draw or Vis Artena
50%

Winning margin

Torres wins by 2+
25%
Vis Artena wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torres 1+ goals
78%
Torres 2+ goals
44%
Torres 3+ goals
19%
Vis Artena 1+ goals
61%
Vis Artena 2+ goals
25%
Vis Artena 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Torres (draw refunded)
68%
Vis Artena (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torres at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

Vis Artena away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torres attack 1.81 + Vis Artena defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Vis Artena attack 1.06 + Torres defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Torres scores more
50%
level
26%
Vis Artena scores more
24%

Torres at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torres vs Vis Artena

Torres and Vis Artena drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone G on December 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Vanni Sanna in Sassari.