Torres 1–0 Ostia Mare: Result & Stats

Torres

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ostia Mare

D. Bianchi 89'

3/6/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 23Stadio Vanni Sanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Torres43%

×Draw26%

Ostia Mare31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorresExpected goals in this matchOstia Mare

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.22

Torres

1.48

Ostia Mare

1.22

Torres creates 21% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 48 away

1.81

creates per match

1.60

0.84

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Torres

1.81

Ostia Mare

1.60

allows per match

Torres

0.84

Ostia Mare

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torres+0.00on par

Ostia Mare+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torres ↓

Ostia Mare →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Torres or draw

69%

Torres or Ostia Mare

74%

Draw or Ostia Mare

57%

Winning margin

Torres wins by 2+

21%

Ostia Mare wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Torres 1+ goals

77%

Torres 2+ goals

43%

Torres 3+ goals

19%

Ostia Mare 1+ goals

70%

Ostia Mare 2+ goals

34%

Ostia Mare 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Torres (draw refunded)

58%

Ostia Mare (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torres at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

Ostia Mare away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.15 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torres attack 1.81 + Ostia Mare defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.48

Ostia Mare attack 1.60 + Torres defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torres scores more

43%

level

26%

Ostia Mare scores more

31%

Torres at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

89'

D. Bianchi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff