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Torres vs Arzachena — Serie D - Girone G 2019

Torres
Torres
FT
1 – 0
Arzachena
Arzachena
11/7/2021Serie D - Girone GSerie D - Girone G · Group G - 8Stadio Vanni Sanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Torres49%
×Draw25%
Arzachena26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torres
1.58
Arzachena
1.09

Torres creates 45% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 46 away

creates per match

Torres
1.81
Arzachena
1.35

allows per match

Torres
0.84
Arzachena
1.35

finishing

Torres+0.00on par
Arzachena+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torres ↓

Arzachena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torres or draw
74%
Torres or Arzachena
75%
Draw or Arzachena
51%

Winning margin

Torres wins by 2+
25%
Arzachena wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Torres 1+ goals
79%
Torres 2+ goals
47%
Torres 3+ goals
21%
Arzachena 1+ goals
66%
Arzachena 2+ goals
30%
Arzachena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torres (draw refunded)
65%
Arzachena (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torres at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

Arzachena away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torres attack 1.81 + Arzachena defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.58

Arzachena attack 1.35 + Torres defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torres scores more
49%
level
25%
Arzachena scores more
26%

Torres at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torres vs Arzachena

Torres beat Arzachena 1-0 in Serie D - Girone G on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Stadio Vanni Sanna in Sassari.