Torres 1–2 Albalonga: Result & Stats

Torres

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Albalonga

2/20/2022

Serie D - Girone G · Group G - 21Stadio Vanni Sanna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Torres51%

×Draw25%

Albalonga25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorresExpected goals in this matchAlbalonga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.06

Torres

1.64

Albalonga

1.06

Torres creates 55% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 51 away

1.81

creates per match

1.29

0.84

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Torres

1.81

Albalonga

1.29

allows per match

Torres

0.84

Albalonga

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torres+0.00on par

Albalonga+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torres ↓

Albalonga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

28%72%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Torres or draw

75%

Torres or Albalonga

75%

Draw or Albalonga

49%

Winning margin

Torres wins by 2+

27%

Albalonga wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Torres 1+ goals

81%

Torres 2+ goals

49%

Torres 3+ goals

23%

Albalonga 1+ goals

65%

Albalonga 2+ goals

29%

Albalonga 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Torres (draw refunded)

67%

Albalonga (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torres at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.84 · 31 matches

Albalonga away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.47 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torres attack 1.81 + Albalonga defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

Albalonga attack 1.29 + Torres defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Torres scores more

51%

level

25%

Albalonga scores more

25%

Torres at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Torres will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff