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Torreperogil vs Vélez — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torreperogil
Torreperogil
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Vélez
Vélez
11/9/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 13Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Torreperogil44%
×Draw27%
Vélez28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreperogil
1.35
Vélez
1.02

Torreperogil creates 32% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 26 away

creates per match

Torreperogil
1.08
Vélez
1.19

allows per match

Torreperogil
0.85
Vélez
1.62

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par
Vélez+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Vélez →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw
72%
Torreperogil or Vélez
73%
Draw or Vélez
56%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+
21%
Vélez wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals
74%
Torreperogil 2+ goals
39%
Torreperogil 3+ goals
15%
Vélez 1+ goals
64%
Vélez 2+ goals
27%
Vélez 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)
61%
Vélez (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Vélez away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Vélez defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.35

Vélez attack 1.19 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Torreperogil scores more
44%
level
27%
Vélez scores more
28%

Torreperogil at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Torreperogil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreperogil vs Vélez

Torreperogil and Vélez drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.