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Torreperogil vs Melilla CD — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torreperogil
Torreperogil
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Melilla CD
Melilla CD
2/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 26Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Torreperogil61%
×Draw22%
Melilla CD16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreperogil
1.84
Melilla CD
0.83

Torreperogil creates 122% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 28 away

creates per match

Torreperogil
1.08
Melilla CD
0.82

allows per match

Torreperogil
0.85
Melilla CD
2.61

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par
Melilla CD+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Melilla CD →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw
84%
Torreperogil or Melilla CD
78%
Draw or Melilla CD
39%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+
36%
Melilla CD wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals
84%
Torreperogil 2+ goals
55%
Torreperogil 3+ goals
28%
Melilla CD 1+ goals
56%
Melilla CD 2+ goals
20%
Melilla CD 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)
79%
Melilla CD (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Melilla CD away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Melilla CD defence 2.61 → ÷2 → 1.84

Melilla CD attack 0.82 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Torreperogil scores more
61%
level
22%
Melilla CD scores more
16%

Torreperogil at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Torreperogil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreperogil vs Melilla CD

Torreperogil beat Melilla CD 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on February 22, 2020.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.