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Torreperogil vs Mancha Real — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torreperogil
Torreperogil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mancha Real
Mancha Real
3/30/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 27Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Torreperogil43%
×Draw31%
Mancha Real26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreperogil
1.12
Mancha Real
0.79

Torreperogil creates 42% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 79 away

creates per match

Torreperogil
1.08
Mancha Real
0.73

allows per match

Torreperogil
0.85
Mancha Real
1.16

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par
Mancha Real+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Mancha Real →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw
74%
Torreperogil or Mancha Real
69%
Draw or Mancha Real
57%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+
18%
Mancha Real wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals
67%
Torreperogil 2+ goals
31%
Torreperogil 3+ goals
10%
Mancha Real 1+ goals
55%
Mancha Real 2+ goals
19%
Mancha Real 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)
63%
Mancha Real (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Mancha Real away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.16 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Mancha Real defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.12

Mancha Real attack 0.73 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torreperogil scores more
43%
level
31%
Mancha Real scores more
26%

Torreperogil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torreperogil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torreperogil 1–0 Mancha Real

Torreperogil beat Mancha Real 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.