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Torreperogil vs Málaga II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torreperogil
Torreperogil
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Málaga II
Málaga II
11/24/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 15Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Torreperogil35%
×Draw29%
Málaga II36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreperogil
1.09
Málaga II
1.10

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 110 home / 92 away

creates per match

Torreperogil
1.08
Málaga II
1.35

allows per match

Torreperogil
0.85
Málaga II
1.10

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par
Málaga II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Málaga II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw
64%
Torreperogil or Málaga II
71%
Draw or Málaga II
65%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+
14%
Málaga II wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals
66%
Torreperogil 2+ goals
30%
Torreperogil 3+ goals
10%
Málaga II 1+ goals
67%
Málaga II 2+ goals
30%
Málaga II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)
50%
Málaga II (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Málaga II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.10 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Málaga II defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.09

Málaga II attack 1.35 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Torreperogil scores more
35%
level
29%
Málaga II scores more
36%

Málaga II at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreperogil vs Málaga II

Torreperogil beat Málaga II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 24, 2019.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.