Málaga II 3–0 Torreperogil: Result & Stats

Málaga II

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Torreperogil

4/13/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 30Ciudad Deportiva MCF Campo 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Málaga II61%

×Draw23%

Torreperogil16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Málaga IIExpected goals in this matchTorreperogil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

0.78

Málaga II

1.78

Torreperogil

0.78

Málaga II creates 128% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 109 away

2.03

creates per match

0.87

0.69

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Málaga II

2.03

Torreperogil

0.87

allows per match

Málaga II

0.69

Torreperogil

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Málaga II+0.00on par

Torreperogil+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Málaga II ↓

Torreperogil →

0–08%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Málaga II or draw

84%

Málaga II or Torreperogil

77%

Draw or Torreperogil

39%

Winning margin

Málaga II wins by 2+

35%

Torreperogil wins by 2+

Team goals

Málaga II 1+ goals

83%

Málaga II 2+ goals

53%

Málaga II 3+ goals

26%

Torreperogil 1+ goals

54%

Torreperogil 2+ goals

18%

Torreperogil 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Málaga II (draw refunded)

79%

Torreperogil (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Málaga II at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.69 · 91 matches

Torreperogil away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.53 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Málaga II attack 2.03 + Torreperogil defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.78

Torreperogil attack 0.87 + Málaga II defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 61%?"

Málaga II scores more

61%

level

23%

Torreperogil scores more

16%

Málaga II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Málaga II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff