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Torreperogil vs Malaga City — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torreperogil
Torreperogil
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Malaga City
Malaga City
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Torreperogil55%
×Draw26%
Malaga City19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreperogil
1.52
Malaga City
0.76

Torreperogil creates 100% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 49 away

creates per match

Torreperogil
1.08
Malaga City
0.67

allows per match

Torreperogil
0.85
Malaga City
1.96

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par
Malaga City+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Malaga City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw
81%
Torreperogil or Malaga City
74%
Draw or Malaga City
45%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+
29%
Malaga City wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals
78%
Torreperogil 2+ goals
45%
Torreperogil 3+ goals
20%
Malaga City 1+ goals
53%
Malaga City 2+ goals
18%
Malaga City 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)
75%
Malaga City (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Malaga City away — creates 0.67, concedes 1.96 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Malaga City defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.52

Malaga City attack 0.67 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torreperogil scores more
55%
level
26%
Malaga City scores more
19%

Torreperogil at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Torreperogil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreperogil vs Malaga City

Torreperogil and Malaga City drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.