Torreperogil 3–0 Loja: Result & Stats

Torreperogil

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Loja

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 24Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Torreperogil55%

×Draw24%

Loja21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorreperogilExpected goals in this matchLoja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

0.91

Torreperogil

1.66

Loja

0.91

Torreperogil creates 82% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 29 away

1.08

creates per match

0.97

0.85

allows per match

2.24

creates per match

Torreperogil

1.08

Loja

0.97

allows per match

Torreperogil

0.85

Loja

2.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par

Loja+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Loja →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw

79%

Torreperogil or Loja

76%

Draw or Loja

45%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+

30%

Loja wins by 2+

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals

81%

Torreperogil 2+ goals

49%

Torreperogil 3+ goals

23%

Loja 1+ goals

60%

Loja 2+ goals

23%

Loja 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)

73%

Loja (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Loja away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.24 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Loja defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.66

Loja attack 0.97 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 55%?"

Torreperogil scores more

55%

level

24%

Loja scores more

21%

Torreperogil at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Torreperogil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff