Torreperogil 0–1 Linares Deportivo: Result & Stats

Torreperogil

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Linares Deportivo

Rosendo Alarcon 82'

11/3/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 12Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Torreperogil24%

×Draw27%

Linares Deportivo49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorreperogilExpected goals in this matchLinares Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.46

Torreperogil

0.94

Linares Deportivo

1.46

Linares Deportivo creates 55% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 14 away

1.08

creates per match

2.07

0.85

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Torreperogil

1.08

Linares Deportivo

2.07

allows per match

Torreperogil

0.85

Linares Deportivo

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par

Linares Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Linares Deportivo →

0–09%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw

51%

Torreperogil or Linares Deportivo

73%

Draw or Linares Deportivo

76%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+

Linares Deportivo wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals

61%

Torreperogil 2+ goals

24%

Torreperogil 3+ goals

Linares Deportivo 1+ goals

77%

Linares Deportivo 2+ goals

43%

Linares Deportivo 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)

33%

Linares Deportivo (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Linares Deportivo away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Linares Deportivo defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

Linares Deportivo attack 2.07 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Torreperogil scores more

24%

level

27%

Linares Deportivo scores more

49%

Linares Deportivo at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Linares Deportivo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

49'

Borja Monedero← Javi Quesada

54'

A. Araiza← Fran Carnicer

66'

Sergio← Pablo González

72'

Fran← Ángel Gómez

82'

Rosendo Alarcon

84'

Fran Lara← Isra

85'

Pedro López← Antonio Romero

Torreperogil

Linares

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Antonio Torres

49'▲Borja Monedero←▼Javi Quesada

72'▲Fran←▼Ángel Gómez

85'▲Pedro López←▼Antonio Romero

Torreperogil substitutes

MonederoFranLópez

Manager: Juan Arsenal

54'▲A. Araiza←▼Fran Carnicer

66'▲Sergio←▼Pablo González

84'▲Fran Lara←▼Isra

Linares Deportivo substitutes

AraizaSergioLara

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torreperogil 0–1 Linares Deportivo

Linares Deportivo beat Torreperogil 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 3, 2019.

Goals: Rosendo Alarcon (82').

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.

Torreperogil vs Linares Deportivo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Torreperogil 0–1 Linares Deportivo