Torreperogil 6–0 Huracán Melilla: Result & Stats

Torreperogil

6 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Huracán Melilla

2/11/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 21Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Torreperogil85%

×Draw11%

Huracán Melilla4%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorreperogilExpected goals in this matchHuracán Melilla

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.88

0.53

Torreperogil

2.88

Huracán Melilla

0.53

Torreperogil creates 443% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 15 away

1.08

creates per match

0.20

0.85

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Torreperogil

1.08

Huracán Melilla

0.20

allows per match

Torreperogil

0.85

Huracán Melilla

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par

Huracán Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Huracán Melilla →

0–03%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2–014%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3–014%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–010%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw

96%

Torreperogil or Huracán Melilla

89%

Draw or Huracán Melilla

15%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+

65%

Huracán Melilla wins by 2+

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals

94%

Torreperogil 2+ goals

78%

Torreperogil 3+ goals

54%

Huracán Melilla 1+ goals

41%

Huracán Melilla 2+ goals

10%

Huracán Melilla 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)

95%

Huracán Melilla (draw refunded)

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Huracán Melilla away — creates 0.20, concedes 4.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Huracán Melilla defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 2.88

Huracán Melilla attack 0.20 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 85%?"

Torreperogil scores more

85%

level

11%

Huracán Melilla scores more

Torreperogil at 85% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 85% does not mean "Torreperogil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff