Torreperogil 1–2 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Torreperogil

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Iván Henares 57'

Álex Moreno 90+4'

Sergio Pérez 35'

4/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 110+ matches

Torreperogil43%

×Draw28%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorreperogilExpected goals in this matchCiudad de Torredonjimeno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.00

Torreperogil

1.27

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.00

Torreperogil creates 27% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 110 away

1.08

creates per match

1.16

0.85

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Torreperogil

1.08

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.16

allows per match

Torreperogil

0.85

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw

71%

Torreperogil or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

72%

Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

57%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+

19%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals

72%

Torreperogil 2+ goals

36%

Torreperogil 3+ goals

14%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

63%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

26%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)

59%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Torreperogil scores more

43%

level

28%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

29%

Torreperogil at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Torreperogil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Sergio Pérez

57'

Iván Henares

59'

Pablo Ortíz← Iván Henares

59'

Peli← Joserra

63'

Urko Arroyo← Juanfran

63'

Virgilio← Sergio Valladares

63'

Álex Moreno← Manu Sarmiento

71'

Manu Avilés← Antonio Romero

81'

David Estrella← Joselillo Castillo

81'

Juanlu← Javi Vertiz

90+4'

Álex Moreno

Torreperogil

Ciudad

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Valenciano

59'▲Pablo Ortíz←▼Iván Henares

59'▲Peli←▼Joserra

71'▲Manu Avilés←▼Antonio Romero

Torreperogil substitutes

OrtízPeliAvilés

Manager: Agustín

63'▲Urko Arroyo←▼Juanfran

63'▲Virgilio←▼Sergio Valladares

63'▲Álex Moreno←▼Manu Sarmiento

81'▲David Estrella←▼Joselillo Castillo

81'▲Juanlu←▼Javi Vertiz

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno substitutes

ArroyoVirgilioMorenoEstrellaJuanlu

Match Recap: Torreperogil vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno beat Torreperogil 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 28, 2024.

Goals: Sergio Pérez (35'), Iván Henares (57'), Álex Moreno (90+4').

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.

Torreperogil vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torreperogil vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno