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Torreperogil vs Atlético Melilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Torreperogil
Torreperogil
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Atlético Melilla
Atlético Melilla
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 9Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Torreperogil79%
×Draw14%
Atlético Melilla7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Torreperogil
2.63
Atlético Melilla
0.66

Torreperogil creates 298% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Torreperogil
1.08
Atlético Melilla
0.47

allows per match

Torreperogil
0.85
Atlético Melilla
4.18

finishing

Torreperogil+0.00on par
Atlético Melilla+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torreperogil ↓

Atlético Melilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Torreperogil or draw
93%
Torreperogil or Atlético Melilla
86%
Draw or Atlético Melilla
21%

Winning margin

Torreperogil wins by 2+
57%
Atlético Melilla wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Torreperogil 1+ goals
93%
Torreperogil 2+ goals
73%
Torreperogil 3+ goals
48%
Atlético Melilla 1+ goals
48%
Atlético Melilla 2+ goals
14%
Atlético Melilla 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Torreperogil (draw refunded)
92%
Atlético Melilla (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Torreperogil at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.85 · 110 matches

Atlético Melilla away — creates 0.47, concedes 4.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Torreperogil attack 1.08 + Atlético Melilla defence 4.18 → ÷2 → 2.63

Atlético Melilla attack 0.47 + Torreperogil defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Torreperogil scores more
79%
level
14%
Atlético Melilla scores more
7%

Torreperogil at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Torreperogil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Torreperogil vs Atlético Melilla

Torreperogil and Atlético Melilla drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Polideportivo Municipal Abdon Martínez Fariñas in Torreperogil.