Torrent 2–1 Patacona: Result & Stats

Torrent

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Patacona

Miguel Arilla 84'

Izan Llinares 62'

Brandon Yarce 57'

3/12/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 24Estadio San Gregorio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Torrent46%

×Draw26%

Patacona27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

TorrentExpected goals in this matchPatacona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.05

Torrent

1.45

Patacona

1.05

Torrent creates 38% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 49 away

1.36

creates per match

1.24

0.87

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Torrent

1.36

Patacona

1.24

allows per match

Torrent

0.87

Patacona

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Torrent+0.00on par

Patacona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Torrent ↓

Patacona →

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Torrent or draw

73%

Torrent or Patacona

74%

Draw or Patacona

54%

Winning margin

Torrent wins by 2+

23%

Patacona wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Torrent 1+ goals

77%

Torrent 2+ goals

42%

Torrent 3+ goals

18%

Patacona 1+ goals

65%

Patacona 2+ goals

28%

Patacona 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Torrent (draw refunded)

63%

Patacona (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Torrent at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.87 · 47 matches

Patacona away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.53 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Torrent attack 1.36 + Patacona defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.45

Patacona attack 1.24 + Torrent defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 46%?"

Torrent scores more

46%

level

26%

Patacona scores more

27%

Torrent at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Torrent will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

Brandon Yarce

59'

Álvaro Guillén← Juanmi

62'

Izan Llinares

64'

Burri← Jorge Juliá

71'

Roberto Laurel← Llario

71'

Y. Kharbouch← Cuxart

80'

Adrián Gomis← Izan Llinares

83'

Miguel Arilla← Luis García

84'

Miguel Arilla

85'

Luis Sancho← Brandon Yarce

85'

Sandro Benlloch← Diego Climent

Torrent

Patacona

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Vicente Mir

71'▲Roberto Laurel←▼Llario

71'▲Y. Kharbouch←▼Cuxart

80'▲Adrián Gomis←▼Izan Llinares

83'▲Miguel Arilla←▼Luis García

Torrent substitutes

LaurelKharbouchGomisArilla

Manager: Carlos Ortí

59'▲Álvaro Guillén←▼Juanmi

64'▲Burri←▼Jorge Juliá

85'▲Luis Sancho←▼Brandon Yarce

85'▲Sandro Benlloch←▼Diego Climent

Patacona substitutes

GuillénBurriSanchoBenlloch

Match Recap: Torrent vs Patacona

Torrent beat Patacona 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on March 12, 2023.

Goals: Brandon Yarce (57'), Izan Llinares (62'), Miguel Arilla (84').

The match was played at Estadio San Gregorio in Torrent.

Torrent vs Patacona — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Torrent vs Patacona